Beast from the East

Weather models show that a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event is now 'likely' to take place. This could trigger an extreme bout of snowfall, ...

For the week of February 27 to March 5, Met Eireann's monthly forecast concludes: “Confidence is very low at this point for Week 4 but at the moment it looks like the situation will be similar to week 3 with Ireland between low pressure to the northwest and high pressure to the southeast. Thus, rainfall amounts are indicated to be slightly above average almost everywhere (with the exception of the east coast). The risk of hazardous weather is low, however forecast certainty is also low.” Its forecast for February 6 to 12 reads: “There is moderate confidence for high pressure to dominate our weather for week 1. They said: “The latest forecasts are showing that a major SSW is now likely to take place. Again, mean air temperatures are trending to be slightly above average everywhere. Temperatures look to remain slightly above average and precipitation amounts look set to be above average everywhere but the east and south coasts though amounts are indicated to be low. “A major SSW often makes the jet stream meander more, which can lead to a large area of blocking high pressure over northern Europe, including the UK [and Ireland]. He said: “There is now over 80% chance of a major SSW occurring. This blocking high pressure can lead to cold, dry weather in the north of Europe, including the UK [and Ireland], with mild, wet and windy conditions more likely for southern areas of the continent. That is wait and see.” Models do show increased chance of blocked and possibly cooler weather around start of March

A Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event is now 'likely' to take place, which could trigger an extreme bout of snowfall, similar to the 'Beast from the ...

However, this is not always the case and impacts on UK weather can also be benign when an SSW occurs.” They said: “The latest forecasts are showing that a major SSW is now likely to take place. A major SSW often makes the jet stream meander more, which can lead to a large area of blocking high pressure over northern Europe, including the UK [and Ireland]. Conditions will be overall quite dry, with any periods of precipitation resulting in small amounts. That is wait and see.” Models do show increased chance of blocked and possibly cooler weather around start of March. In 2018, an SSW event created an Artic deluge that left Ireland covered in deep snow for several days, with schools cancelled for many counties. It can have very little impact on our weather, it’s wait and see. Its forecast for February 6 to 12 reads: “There is moderate confidence for high pressure to dominate our weather for week 1. "The recent minor SSW weakened the SPV and it’s now likely to collapse and reverse in the middle of February. So an SSW will happen we know that now but what we don’t know is the impact on our weather. [Carlow ](https://www.dublinlive.ie/all-about/carlow)Weather social media accounts, he wrote: “Latest weather models showing risk of SSW increasing but remember any impacts on our weather are uncertain and if it does impact our weather it would likely be towards the end of this month or early into March.”

Latest weather forecasts show that a 'major' Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event is now 'likely' to take place.

“A major SSW often makes the jet stream meander more, which can lead to a large area of blocking high pressure over northern Europe, including the UK [and Ireland]. The recent minor SSW weakened the SPV and it’s now likely to collapse and reverse in the middle of February. The latest weather forecasts show that a ‘major’ Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event is now ‘likely’ to take place.

Forecasters are warning of an increased likelihood of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event occurring next week, the same weather event that eventuall.

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Meteorologists forecast a sudden stratospheric warming event, though a cold snap is not guaranteed.

“Therefore, for now, it is unresolved how the upcoming SSW event will affect the weather patterns over north-western Europe. [SSW event in February 2018](https://www.met.ie/cms/assets/uploads/2019/02/EmmaReport2019.pdf), however, caused “major disruption to the tropospheric patterns below and led directly to the colder than average temperatures in Ireland during February and March 2018, including the very cold outbreak from the east culminating with storm Emma at the end of February and beginning of March 2018″. He outlined that every SSW event is different and not all of them disrupt tropospheric patterns, pointing to an SSW event in January 2019 that did not affect the weather patterns over north-western Europe. Paul Moore of Met Éireann explained that the SSW event occurs “where the zonal winds at the 10hPa level (approximately 30km high) and at 60° North reverse from westerly to easterly and the temperatures in the stratosphere over polar regions rise significantly in just a few days”. “Forecasting how a SSW event imprints on the tropospheric weather patterns below is much more difficult to resolve, especially prior to the SSW event itself,” he outlined. In a statement, Moore said that global weather models “can usually forecast, quite accurately, what is going to happen in the polar stratosphere 1-2 weeks in advance, so the upcoming SSW event is highly likely”.

Met Éireann has raised an early alert for a weather system similar to the Beast from the East and Storm Emma events in 2018 that brought Ireland to a sta...

Temperatures are predicted to be close to the seasonal average. It is still predicted to be drier than normal but with much less of a signal than the previous week. The second week from Monday to Sunday, February 20 to 26 show more unsettled conditions over Europe but with a large area of high pressure becoming established in the Atlantic. "For now, it is unresolved how the upcoming event will affect the weather patterns over north-western Europe. "Global weather models can usually forecast, quite accurately, what is going to happen in the polar stratosphere one to two weeks in advance, so the upcoming event is highly likely. "Every sudden stratospheric warming is different and not all of them disrupt the tropospheric patterns below.