Outlook

2023 - 1 - 9

Neutral Sector Outlook for GCC Corporates for 2023 (Fitch Ratings)

Related Content: Gulf Cooperation Council Corporates Outlook 2023Fitch Ratings-Dubai-09 January 2023: The outlook for GCC corporates is neutral for 2023.

Post cover — Image courtesy of "IFA Magazine"

A bevy of black swans: Surprises that could derail the 2023 outlook ... (IFA Magazine)

Robeco's outlook for 'short-term pain, long-term gain' warns that 2023 is likely to see recession, and that investors need to wait for inflation, interest.

“There can be no backtracking on climate: the evidence about climate change continues to mount, and COP27 highlighted that political will is key to shaping the balance between climate ambition and implementation,” Graham says. “We could see another backlash against social media and more regulation on large technology and social media platforms as data protection issues come to the fore again,” says Graham. We could see a multinational ‘super fund’ set up to facilitate the net zero transition, backed by several governments.” The problem is that it has also led to a rise in greenwashing, where companies and investors make ESG claims that cannot be substantiated, often for PR and marketing reasons. Then there is the possibility of a ‘shock regime change’, as witnessed when the UK which went through three prime ministers in 2022. “This would expose investments that were only funded because cash was ‘free’ at the time.” “It could claim that the 2% target is far too close to zero, saying the next recession could tip the economy into outright deflation,” Graham says. The problem here is that in 2022, there was little difference between any of them. “Here, US inflation peaks without a recession, the dollar drops, and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) can rest easy but remain vigilant,” says Colin Graham, Head of Multi-Asset Strategies at Robeco. The result for multi-asset investors is that high yield bonds become very attractive as default rate expectations fall.” Even worse is the prospect of deflation. The current consensus isn’t that rosy, but if history tells us anything, it’s that nothing is ever set in stone.

OUTLOOK 2023: POLAND (bne IntelliNews)

Economy-wise, Poland is in for a year of faltering growth and still elevated inflation, both of which could dent PiS' chances to win. On the other hand, if ...

The question is open whether a deepening economic crisis will make nationalistic fervour a factor in politics. In a country where polarisation matches that of the UK or the US, an election year will only give rise to more polarisation and accompanying acrimony. Amidst all the crises and uncertainty brought by Russia’s war in Ukraine, Poland taking in well over a million Ukrainian war refugees without much friction seems a small miracle. Any signs of economic recovery in the Eurozone will only improve the odds for a relatively clean escape from the current melee. PiS also needs to make peace with its increasingly unruly coalition partner, United Poland, a small party that nonetheless has enough MPs to guarantee the government majority in the parliament. The rogue coalition partner has PiS in a difficult position. Simulations of how Poland’s election system could work in favour – or against – the single opposition block do not offer decisive answers. The latter could be further exacerbated by the stalemate over €36bn from the EU’s pandemic recovery fund, the disbursement of which is on hold as Brussels considers PiS’ judiciary reforms anti-democratic and in breach of EU laws. Economy-wise, Poland is in for a year of faltering growth and still elevated inflation, both of which could dent PiS’ chances to win. A win for the opposition will not, of course, magically bring Poland back to the pre-PiS era (which had so many problems that it proved a fertile ground for PiS to win in the first place). On the EU front, the government must scramble to make sure that billions from the bloc’s pandemic recovery fund finally start flowing. A war next door, polycrisis at home, and an election to top it all off are nearly certain to result in a year rife with volatility and uncertainty.

Fitch Upgrades COMM 2014-LC17; Revises One Outlook to Positive (Fitch Ratings)

Fitch Ratings-Chicago-09 January 2023: Fitch Ratings has upgraded two classes and affirmed 13 classes of COMM 2014-LC17 Mortgage Trust. The Rating Outlo.

Fitch Affirms ADNOC Murban at 'AA', Outlook Stable (Fitch Ratings)

Fitch Ratings-London-09 January 2023: Fitch Ratings has affirmed ADNOC Murban RSC LTD's (ADNOC Murban) Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'AA' wit.

Fitch Affirms Global Net Lease's IDR at 'BB+'; Revises Outlook to ... (Fitch Ratings)

Fitch Ratings-New York-09 January 2023: Fitch Ratings has affirmed the Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) of 'BB+' for Global Net Lease, Inc. (GNL)

Taiwan Politics Outlook: A KMT Resurgence? (The Diplomat)

Identify the top three outcomes of Taiwan's November 26 local elections. The most important thing is that President Tsai stepped down as DPP [Democratic ...

Tsai herself may be nearing the end of her tenure, but her ideas continue to motivate the party and the country. However, as mayor of the capital, he will eventually have to take a stance on how to deal with China. Chiang is one of only a small handful of KMT figures with the potential to do this. The PRC insists that the 1992 Consensus is simply one China (the PRC), so the DPP is now seen as the party defending the status quo. The KMT is still stuck with the electorally unviable 1992 Consensus (one China, each side with its own interpretation) as the cornerstone of how to deal with China. However, there is no Taiwanese or Chinese way to pave a road or subsidize false teeth, so the KMT is not necessarily disadvantaged in local politics.

Fitch Affirms Bright Food's Rating at 'A-'; Outlook Stable (Fitch Ratings)

Fitch Ratings - Hong Kong/Beijing - 09 Jan 2023: Fitch Ratings has affirmed China-based food conglomerate Bright Food (Group) Co., Ltd.'s (BFG) Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'A-' with a Stable Outlook.

Fitch Affirms Honda Finance at 'A'; Outlook Stable (Fitch Ratings)

Fitch Ratings-Tokyo/Taipei-10 January 2023: Fitch Ratings has affirmed Honda Finance Co., Ltd.'s (HFC) Long-Term Foreign- and Local-Currency Issuer Defa.

Goldman No Longer Sees Euro-Area Recession as It Lifts Outlook (Bloomberg)

Economists at Goldman Sachs no longer predict a euro-zone recession after the economy proved more resilient at the end of 2022, natural gas prices fell sharply ...

US Scrap Trends Outlook: January (Fastmarkets news)

Read our monthly US steel scrap price outlook and make sense of critical indicators impacting scrap price movements one month ahead.

The Outlook’s prediction model suggests a potential for ferrous scrap prices to rise next month by 8.3% on average. [Learn more in the US Scrap Trends Outlook: January.](https://info.fastmarkets.com/metals-us-scrap-trends.html) [Get the Scrap Trends Outlook now](https://info.fastmarkets.com/metals-us-scrap-trends.html) [ferrous scrap prices](https://www.fastmarkets.com/metals-and-mining/ferrous-scrap) in January are expected to build on recent gains amid strong demand following the year-end inventory rundown and tight supply, according to the latest Scrap Trends Outlook. Find out today in our monthly US steel scrap price trends outlook US Scrap Trends Outlook: January

Illumina Slumps as 2023 Profit Outlook Disappoints Street (Bloomberg)

Illumina Inc. shares tumbled after the gene-sequencing equipment maker said 2023 profit will be lower than analysts expected.

Analysts had anticipated earnings of $2.99 a share in 2023, according to [estimates](/quote/ILMN:US) compiled by Bloomberg. [Illumina Inc.](/quote/ILMN:US) shares tumbled after the gene-sequencing equipment maker said 2023 profit will be lower than analysts expected.

Illumina's stock falls 10% on 'more cautious outlook' for 2023 (MarketWatch)

Shares of Illumina Inc. tumbled about 10% in premarket trading on Tuesday, the day after the company said it expects lower-than-expected earnings per share.

“The significantly lowered guidance is attributed to conservatism around macro headwinds.” llumina’s stock is down 42.8% over the past 12 months, while the S&P 500 “The company is now issuing a more cautious outlook,” J.P. Shares of Illumina Inc.

Fitch Upgrades Northumbria Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust to ... (Fitch Ratings)

Fitch Ratings-London-10 January 2023: Fitch Ratings has upgraded Northumbria Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust's (Northumbria) Long-Term Foreign- and Loca.

Abbvie raises sales outlook of two new drugs to more than $17.5 bln ... (Reuters)

AbbVie Inc on Tuesday raised its sales forecast of new drugs Skyrizi and Rinvoq for 2025 to more than $17.5 billion, compared with its previous outlook of ...

The two drugs are part of the company's long-term growth strategy to offset Humira's loss of exclusivity. [expects](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1551152/000110465923002452/tm232769d1_ex99-1.htm) peak sales of the drugs to exceed $21 billion in 2027. [(ABBV.N)](https://www.reuters.com/companies/ABBV.N) on Tuesday raised its 2025 sales forecast of its newer immunology drugs Skyrizi and Rinvoq to more than $17.5 billion as it hopes to replace the loss of revenue from its blockbuster rheumatoid arthritis drug Humira.

Illumina's stock falls 10% on 'more cautious outlook' for 2023 (Morningstar.com)

Shares of Illumina Inc. (ILMN) tumbled about 10% in premarket trading on Tuesday, the day after the company said it expects lower-than-expected earnings per ...

"The significantly lowered guidance is attributed to conservatism around macro headwinds." "The company is now issuing a more cautious outlook," J.P. The FactSet consensus is $2.67.

Fitch Affirms Telecomunicaciones Digitales, S.A.'s Ratings at 'BBB ... (Fitch Ratings)

Fitch Ratings-Chicago-10 January 2023: Fitch Ratings has affirmed Telecomunicaciones Digitales, S.A.'s (formerly known as Cable Onda) Long-Term Foreign.

Fitch Affirms Assura at 'A-'; Outlook Stable (Fitch Ratings)

Fitch Ratings-London-10 January 2023: Fitch Ratings has affirmed UK-based healthcare REIT Assura plc's Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'A-' wit.

Citizens Bank M&A outlook optimistic despite headwinds | Vermont ... (Vermont Biz)

The annual survey of 400 leaders at US middle-market companies and private equity firms also indicated that buyer and seller sentiment about mergers and ...

More buyers and sellers showed some uncertainty about the likelihood of getting a deal done this year. There was a significant uptick among both sellers and buyers who look to an M&A advisor as an expert sounding board. Forty percent of middle-market companies indicated they were currently involved in selling activity or open to considering it in 2023, identical to the prior year survey and up from the pandemic low of 33 percent of companies. Sellers also point to growth as the main motivation, with 35 percent saying they seek a sale because of strategic growth opportunities, though it ticked down from 40 percent in last year’s survey. In terms of deal flow expectations, about 20 percent of PE firms said they anticipate lower deal volumes than in 2022 – but 34 percent said they expect increased volumes. Healthcare was also close to neutral, a marked change from last year when it was the sector with the most bullish valuation outlook. In 2023, the leading motivation bringing sellers to market is the lack of a succession plan and need for new leadership. companies and PE firms believe that company valuations in 2023 will be stable or higher than in 2022, the survey found. Most middle-market companies said they expected slower economic growth in the year ahead – but they remain optimistic about their own performance. “Companies exited the pandemic era with a newfound resilience and, in many cases, better finances and more experienced management,” said Jason Wallace, head of Citizens M&A Advisory. The annual survey of 400 leaders at US middle-market companies and private equity firms also indicated that buyer and seller sentiment about mergers and acquisitions will return to pre-pandemic norms as the macroeconomic backdrop stabilizes. Vermont Business Magazine Citizens’ 2023 M&A Outlook revealed both upbeat expectations for company performance and high desire for growth in a low-growth world in the coming year.

Outlook

Explore the last week