ECB

2022 - 7 - 21

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Image courtesy of "The Guardian"

European Central Bank raises interest rates for first time in 11 years (The Guardian)

Bank surprises markets with 0.5 percentage point rise as inflation reaches 8.6% in eurozone.

Today’s decision shows that the ECB is more concerned about this credibility than about being predictable.” He said the causes of inflation would not be affected by the interest rate rise, but the ECB was wise to make a bigger splash ahead of a possible downturn. The collapse of Italy’s government earlier today increased the cost of Rome’s borrowing and put pressure on the ECB to step up its “anti-fragmentation” programme, designed to protect countries that come under debt financing stress. ECB officials have come under pressure from German, Dutch and Austrian officials to increase borrowing costs despite concerns that debt financing costs would escalate for southern European members of the euro currency bloc. The ECB raised its three key interest rates to 0.50%, 0.75% and 0% respectively, ending an era of negative rates dating back to the Greek debt crisis of 2012. Speaking at a press conference after the decision, she said the depreciation of the euro against the dollar had raised import costs, adding to inflationary pressures.

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Image courtesy of "CNBC"

Watch Christine Lagarde speak after the ECB surprises markets with ... (CNBC)

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is giving a press conference after the bank's latest monetary policy decision.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is giving a press conference after the bank's latest monetary policy decision. The Frankfurt institution had kept rates at historic lows, in negative territory since 2014, as it dealt with the region's sovereign debt crisis and the coronavirus pandemic.

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Image courtesy of "RTE.ie"

Why the ECB is raising rates and what it means for you (RTE.ie)

The last time the European Central Bank increased interest rates, Jedward were number one, Enda Kenny was taoiseach and Ireland was living under the ...

So the ECB may decide not to do as much as it had previously indicated it might do in September, or may even do more - who knows! But according to the Central Bank, on average the immediate impact of a 1% increase could be €65 across all standard variable rate mortgages, with the median monthly repayment rising from €862 to €927. The big positive, of course, is that if the rate increases work, they will help to tame inflation. Recently, because the ECB was charging banks negative rates for holding money on deposit, the banks in turn were not giving any interest on people's savings, and in the case of large depositors were actually charging them for storing their cash. In the case of someone with a variable rate mortgage, with €250,000 left to repay over 25 years, whose rate will now move from 3.2% to 3.7%, their monthly repayment will increase by €67 or €804 annually or €20,051 over the 25 years. This means that the household sector as a whole is in a better position to absorb interest rate increases than it was 15 years ago. He says if you take someone with a €250,000 mortgage that has 25 years remaining and who is paying a tracker rate of 1% that will now increase to 1.5%, they will pay an extra €47 monthly or €564 annually, or €14,100 over the life of mortgage. So the best, albeit blunt, tool that the ECB has to counteract it is to raise interest rates. But in July of 2011, the threat of inflation in the performing economies of Europe prompted the ECB to raise its main lending rate by a quarter of one percent to 1.5%. And today the ECB announced a greater than expected 0.5% increase in rates from July 27, saying it is appropriate to take a larger first step than signalled at its previous meeting because of its updated assessment of inflation risks. A useful reminder, were it needed, that the era of very cheap or free money we've become so accustomed to over the past decade is far from, well, normal. While in 2011 when the ECB last increased rates there was a threat of inflation across Europe, today it is already rampant.

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Image courtesy of "Financial Times"

ECB raises rates for first time in more than a decade (Financial Times)

We'll send you a myFT Daily Digest email rounding up the latest European Central Bank news every morning. The European Central Bank has raised interest rates by ...

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ECB's first rate hike in 11 years to hit €25bn of tracker loans (The Irish Times)

The European Central Bank (ECB) increased interest rates across the euro zone by a half percentage point on Thursday, marking its first hike since 2011, ...

Governing council members were increasingly concerned over recent weeks that the central bank had fallen behind the curve on inflation. The ECB’s target is to have inflation of 2 per cent over the medium term. Ms Lagarde said a bolder step was also allowed by the ECB governing council agreeing to set up a new programme that would allow it to step in and buy the bonds of euro zone countries whose market borrowing costs spiked in an “unwarranted, disorderly” way.

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Decision Day for the E.C.B. (The New York Times)

The European Central Bank increased its benchmark interest rates today for the first time in a decade, as inflation surges across countries that use the euro.

Erin Lowry, a personal finance expert and the author of the “Broke Millennial” series, said it was difficult to see exactly what fees would be charged from the company’s Frequently Asked Questions section on its website. A big reason for the slowdown: China. “It’s kind of been supply chain hell,” Tesla’s chief executive, Elon Musk, said on the company’s earnings call. The Justice Department says he misused his access to Twitter user data, gathering the personal information of political dissidents and passing it to Saudi Arabia in exchange for a luxury watch and hundreds of thousands of dollars. Profit was $2.3 billion, compared with a record $3.3 billion in the first quarter, but up from $1.1 billion a year ago. When borrowers leave their company or retire, they pay back Lendtable the loan amount plus 20 percent of the money they earned from their employers’ match over the life of the loan. Consumer prices are soaring at their fastest rate in a generation, climbing 8.6 percent in June from a year earlier in the face of rising energy and food costs. The last time prices rose at this rate was before the creation of the euro — and the European Central Bank. United returns to profitability for the first time since the start of the pandemic. But the airline, which reported its second-quarter results yesterday, warned that it is likely to cut flights so that it can run more smoothly. A Twitter worker accused of spying for Saudi Arabia heads to trial. Prices started to rise strongly in Europe last year as the reopening from pandemic lockdowns caused imbalances in supply and demand. Today’s move is the crucial next step in ending the E.C.B.’s era of ultra-loose monetary policy.

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ECB delivers rate hike, adds tool to its box (POLITICO.eu)

'The Governing Council decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 50 basis points,' the bank says.

Sooner or later, the European Court of Justice will have to have a look at this tool.” The tool "is dangerously close to monetary state financing,” said German MEP Markus Ferber of the European People’s Party said in a statement after the decision. The agreement on a TPI had to be paid for by the doves with a stronger rate hike today,” ING economist Carsten Brzeski said. The Governing Council will have a lot of discretion when activating the program. Instead, she spelled out that the ECB can activate the tool to counter unwarranted market disruption that poses a serious threat to the transmission of monetary policy to any eurozone member state. On Thursday, though, the onus was on the Lagarde. The market reaction, which saw Italian spreads rising to 247.7 basis points a daily low of 207.40, suggest that she might yet have some convincing to do. That could mean borrowing costs will spike in some member states, making it harder for the ECB to raise rates and deliver on its price stability mandate. To address those concerns, the Governing Council unveiled its anti-crisis bond-buying “tool” — formally known as the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) — that aims to address spikes in bond yields of countries beyond what economic fundamentals would warrant. “We will not hesitate,” she insisted. “The TPI will ensure that the monetary policy stance is transmitted smoothly across all euro area countries,” the Governing Council said. Looking ahead, "further normalization of interest rates will be appropriate," with the future rate path to be decided meeting-by-meeting and depending on incoming data, it added. As European University Institute professor Sony Kapoor put it on Twitter: “The touting of “unanimity” by Lagarde at the ECB press conference was basically meaningless!

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Image courtesy of "Reuters"

ECB hikes rates, throws lifeline to indebted countries (Reuters)

The European Central Bank raised interest rates by more than expected on Thursday as concerns about runaway inflation trumped worries about growth, ...

Markets are now pricing in a 50 basis point rate hike in September and see a combined 127 basis points of rises over the rest of the year. "We expect inflation to remain undesirably high for some time." Any gas shortage over the coming winter is likely to push prices even higher, perpetuating rapid price growth. Policymakers also agreed to provide extra help for the euro zone's big debtor nations - Italy among them - with a new bond purchase scheme. Sources told Reuters they did not expect to use it imminently despite a selloff in Italian bonds. It was the ECB's first rate increase in 11 years.

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Image courtesy of "Foreign Policy"

ECB Rate Rise Balances Inflation With Recession Fears (Foreign Policy)

European Central Bank (ECB) chief Christine Lagarde is set to announce the bank's first interest rate increase in 11 years today as Europe seeks to tame rapid ...

The United States ranks a joint seventh on the list (186 destinations), while Afghanistan ranks in last place with just 27 destinations allowing easy passage. Lavrov said Russian goals for territorial control had shifted since March from beyond the Donbas to include Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions “and a number of other territories.” Lavrov added that “geographical tasks” will extend further into Ukrainian territory as long as Western nations continue to supply long-range weapons. First, a note to readers: Morning Brief comes to your inbox every weekday morning free of charge, but our work is only made possible by the support we receive from FP subscribers. Truss is currently favored by British betting companies to prevail in the head-to-head race among party members, the results of which will be announced on Sept. 5. FP columnist Lynne O’Donnell returned to Afghanistan this week, almost a year after its fall to the Taliban. From there, things went downhill quickly. First, a note to readers: Morning Brief comes to your inbox every weekday morning free of charge, but our work is only made possible by the support we receive from FP subscribers. This is an outcome that came out of the Astana process,” Erdogan told reporters. Its current government, headed by the man credited with preventing the eurozone’s last meltdown, Mario Draghi, has collapsed after the right-wing Forza Italia and League parties boycotted a confidence vote on Wednesday night along with the Five Star Movement. Draghi won in a 95-38 vote in the 315-member Senate but immediately tendered his resignation for the second time in a week after his key coalition partners deserted him. And you don’t necessarily want to sink the economy in order to try to get energy prices down. Truss. Britain’s next prime minister will be either former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak or Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, after the two made it to the final round of the Conservative Party leadership contest. As well as trying to preventing a blocwide recession, EU leaders must also account for the differing economic performances of member states. Lagarde is set to unveil an anti-fragmentation program to help calm markets, although the details are still under wraps.

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Image courtesy of "Bloomberg"

Here's a Closer Look at the ECB's New Anti-Fragmentation Tool (Bloomberg)

The European Central Bank just unveiled its new Transmission Protection Instrument, designed to prevent a disorderly widening of euro-area borrowing costs.

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Factbox: ECB unveils new TPI anti-fragmentation instrument (Reuters)

The European Central Bank unveiled on Thursday its Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI), a new bond purchase scheme aimed at helping more indebted euro ...

- The TPI will be in addition to the existing ECB toolkit. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

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Spread betting: how will the ECB's new bond-buying tool work? (Financial Times)

We'll send you a myFT Daily Digest email rounding up the latest European Central Bank news every morning. Christine Lagarde proclaimed a “rather historical ...

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ECB lays out criteria for anti-fragmentation usage, including IMF ... (MarketWatch)

The European Central Bank laid out eligibility and other details for its anti-fragmentation program called the Transmission Protection Instrument....

The European Central Bank laid out eligibility and other details for its anti-fragmentation program called the Transmission Protection Instrument. Eligibility criteria include that the applicant comply with the EU fiscal framework and not be subject to an excessive deficit procedure, be absent "severe macroeconomic imbalances," and have sustainable debt as judged by European Commission, the European Stability Mechanism, the International Monetary Fund and other institutions, together with the ECB's internal analysis. The ECB said, if activated, it would not cause a "persistent" impact on the balance sheet, and would focus on public securities with a maturity between 1 and 10 years, though private-sector securities purchases would be considered. The ECB said, if activated, it would not cause a "persistent" impact on the balance sheet, and would focus on public securities with a maturity between 1 and 10 years, though private-sector securities purchases would be considered.

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Image courtesy of "Independent.ie"

As Italy lurches towards crisis ECB builds new bond backstop in ... (Independent.ie)

Another half-a percentage point rate hike - or higher - could be on the cards for September, the European Bank has signalled, as it scrambles to tame near ...

“That doesn’t meant to say we are changing the ultimate point of arrival. “The agreement on a TPI had to be paid for by the doves with a stronger rate hike.” “The combined forward guidance that existed for September is no longer applicable. “The singleness of our monetary policy is a precondition for the ECB to be able to deliver on its price stability mandate,” she said. It would see the bank buying up bonds in countries that face “unwarranted disorderly market dynamics”. It will be up to the ECB to decide whether a sufficient shock has taken place. She said a decision in September would depend on the “data”, with the bank aiming to arrive at its 2pc inflation target over the medium term.

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Image courtesy of "The New York Times"

The ECB Has a New Tool to Keep Bond Markets in Check: the TPI (The New York Times)

Rapidly rising borrowing costs for Italy in recent months intensified focus on so-called market fragmentation.

“The key question is how strict these criteria will be enforced.” The decision to use the tool would be decided by the 25-member Governing Council, which is made up of the heads of the eurozone’s 19 national central banks and a six-person executive board, without disclosing specific details of what could trigger its activation. “But if we have to use it we will not hesitate.” This new tool, called the Transmission Protection Instrument, is intended to stop disorderly moves in government bond markets. It will buy public debt that matures between 1 and 10 years. The scale of the bond purchases will depend on the severity of the risks involved and are not restricted, the bank said.

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Image courtesy of "Bloomberg"

Gold Reverses Loss After ECB Raises Rates More Than Expected (Bloomberg)

European stocks and bonds slumped and the euro rose after the ECB joined global central banks in driving outsized rate increases to quell inflation. Bullion ...

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European Central Bank expected to hike rates 'by further 1.25 ... (Irish Examiner)

Neil McDonnell, chief executive of business group Isme, said he hoped the banks here wouldn't pass on the ECB hike, adding lenders had the "headroom" to ...

Neil McDonnell, chief executive of business group Isme, said he hoped the banks here wouldn't pass on the ECB hike, adding lenders had the "headroom" to absorb some or all of the half-point increase. Ms Lagarde described the eurozone economy as facing a drag on growth from the Ukraine war[/url and increased uncertainty. The 300,000 households on tracker mortgages automatically have their rates hiked in tandem with ECB rate increases, while people on fixed-rate mortgages that expire later this year will almost certainly face higher costs too.

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Image courtesy of "Reuters"

Stocks gain for fifth straight session, euro advances after ECB rate hike (Reuters)

A gauge of global stock markets rose for a fifth straight session while the euro edged up in choppy trading after the European Central Bank raised interest ...

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Sterling was last trading at $1.1974, up 0.04% on the day. It is too early to know for sure, but earnings are OK. They are probably not as bad as people were worried about so far," said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services in Atlanta, Georgia. As the U.S. corporate earnings season rolls along, 91 companies in the benchmark S&P 500 index have reported quarterly results, with 78% topping expectations, according to Refinitiv data. Growth (.IGX) shares outperformed to help buoy indexes. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com The dollar index fell 0.28%. The central bank also introduced a bond protection plan, called the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI), that is designed to cap borrowing costs across the region. The ECB had for weeks flagged a 25 basis point hike, until earlier this week, when sources told Reuters the central bank was weighing a bigger move. read more Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com read more

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Euro set for best week since May after ECB opts for big hike (Reuters)

The euro headed for its best week since May on Friday after the European Central Bank (ECB) raised borrowing costs more than expected overnight in its first ...

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Since last Friday, it is down 0.46%. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com read more read more

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The ECB reminds everyone who really has the authority (Financial Times)

We'll send you a myFT Daily Digest email rounding up the latest European Central Bank news every morning. You might not easily get this impression from ...

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ECB proposes new instrument to prevent eurozone fragmentation (EURACTIV)

The European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday (21 July) unveiled a new "Transmission Protection Instrument" (TPI) by which it wants to ensure that the ...

This often put the ECB in a difficult position, as it is supposed to be politically neutral. And it is this problem that the TPI is supposed to solve. Other economists found more positive words for the TPI, however. As euro area member states have different levels of public debt, a rise in interest rates influences them differently. The TPI will allow the ECB to purchase mainly government bonds of euro area member states that experience “a deterioration in financing conditions not warranted by country-specific fundamentals.” As the ECB has unlimited firepower, it can guarantee that Italian government bonds do not get too expensive. According to the ECB, this dynamic is a problem as it makes it hard for its monetary policy to have the intended effect in the entire euro area.

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ECB hike to hit 300000 Irish mortgages as experts warn more rises ... (Irish Examiner)

Further ECB rate hikes of up to 1.25% are expected — and they would significantly increase the cost of people's home loans.

Ms Lagarde described the eurozone economy as facing a drag on growth from the Ukraine war and increased uncertainty. ISME chief executive Neil McDonnell said he hopes the banks do not pass on the ECB hike. That means there will be no escape for most households from rate hikes coming down the line before Christmas.

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Euro gets boost after ECB supersizes rate hike (RTE.ie)

The euro advanced against the dollar after Russia resumed gas supplies to Europe and the European Central Bank surprised markets with a 0.5 percentage-point ...

With the resignation of Prime Minister Mario Draghi increasing the political risk in Italy and sending Italian government bond yields climbing, the ECB may need to use its new tool. "The ECB had to surprise, otherwise the euro would have plunged - and they couldn't risk that," Razaqzada said. The euro advanced against the dollar after Russia resumed gas supplies to Europe and the European Central Bank surprised markets with a 0.5 percentage-point rate hike.

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Close to 300000 Irish households to be impacted by ECB hike (BreakingNews.ie)

Calls grow for Irish mortgage banks to forgo passing on ECB rate hikes. AIB said it was keeping its rates “under review”. Mortgage brokers say Bank of Ireland, ...

ISME chief executive Neil McDonnell said he hopes the banks do not pass on the ECB hike. There are a total of 730,000 mortgaged households in Ireland, but there was no escape from yesterday’s half-point rise for the 300,000 households on trackers because these rates are directly tied to any ECB rate moves. Around 300,000 households on tracker mortgages are likely to face cost increases of over €3,000 this year after the European Central Bank on Thursday started to raise its official rates for the first time in over a decade.

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ECB makes first rate hike in 11 years to contain inflation (bne IntelliNews)

The European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates for the first time in over 11 years on July 21 in a bid to contain rising inflation in the ...

“We all know that today’s rate hike will not bring down inflation in the short run – not even on the demand side of the economy, which will react much more to the looming recession than to any ECB action. By the end of 2023, ECB rates will reach 1.75% to 2% in our view," he added. However, market behaviour is not waiting for an official announcement from central bankers, the strength of expectations is already showing, and we have seen the price of money rise in the market, which has ultimately been reflected in interest rates on banking products," said Hornak told the Slovak News Agency. “This decision shows that the hawks must have got cold feet, fearing that the promised higher-than-25bp rate hike in September would be washed away by the looming recession. The rate hike came in response to accelerating inflation. Another factor is higher inflationary pressures stemming from the depreciation of the euro exchange rate.

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ECB to be determined in using anti-fragmentation tool - Villeroy (Reuters)

The European Central Bank will be determined in using its new bond-buying scheme to combat financial fragmentation between euro zone countries if it needs ...

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com read more Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

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Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for the third ... (European Central Bank)

22 July 2022. HICP inflation expectations revised up across all horizons; Real GDP growth expectations revised down for the nearer term, but otherwise ...

- The SPF survey for the third quarter of 2022 was conducted between 1 and 5 July 2022, with 56 responses received. The SPF is conducted on a quarterly basis and gathers expectations for the rates of inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment in the euro area for several horizons, together with a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty surrounding them. Previous SPF (Q2 2022) Previous SPF (Q2 2022) Previous SPF (Q2 2022) Previous SPF (Q2 2022) Notwithstanding the downward revisions to expected GDP growth, unemployment rate expectations were again revised down for all horizons. Respondents noted that the stronger than expected outturn in the first quarter of 2022 largely offset the weaker dynamics expected for the other quarters. Q3 2022 SPF In the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2022, respondents revised up their inflation expectations for all horizons. Longer-term inflation expectations (for 2027) stood at 2.2% on average, revised up by another 0.1 percentage point. By contrast, fiscal measures against rising energy prices have cushioned the energy price shock to some extent, and the effects of the reopening of the economy have also played out positively.

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ECB's Kazimir Says Next Hike May Be Quarter or Half Point (Bloomberg)

European Central Bank Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said that the next interest-rate hike by policy makers might be a quarter point or a half point ...

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From Nordstream to the ECB: Europe in Charts (Morningstar)

Our look at the European markets takes us from ECB headquarters in Frankfurt to the small Baltic Sea town of Lubmin in Eastern Germany.

This is the first interest rate rise in the eurozone in this tightening cycle, but the Bank of England and Fed have already started raising rates. Stock markets have fallen significantly since the beginning of the year, but Europe is in a worse position than the USA, as the chart above shows. Brussel now expects a GDP growth of 2.6% for the EU27 this year, compared to 2.7% in the spring forecast. For the first time in almost 20 years, the euro fell to par with the US dollar. But it's not just the euro that's falling: the dollar hit a 24-year high against the yen this month. And Italy’s ENI also had to cope with a drop in delivery volumes by almost a third - which is also related to the loss of Nord Stream volumes, which would otherwise be forwarded south. In 2023, there will be a meager plus of 1.4% instead of the 2.3% that it forecasted in May. Estimates on how severely the German and European economies would be impacted by a permanent halt in Russian gas flows vary considerably. After expanding by 1¼% in 2022, German GDP is then likely to shrink by around 1% in 2023, largely because consumers are unable to offset the loss in real income by further dissaving. According to Gazprom, the missing parts were the reason for the previous gas flow throttling in Nord Stream 1. Europe, and especially Germany, is increasingly growing nervous about whether Russia’s Gazprom will turn off the gas taps again even after the 10-day scheduled maintenance of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline ended and flows resumed at a lower rate. According to Reuters, Austria's OMV ( OMV) has only received around 30% of the nominated volumes since Nord Stream maintenance began.

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Image courtesy of "bne IntelliNews"

ECB makes first rate hike in 11 years to contain inflation (bne IntelliNews)

The European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates for the first time in over 11 years on July 21 in a bid to contain rising inflation in the ...

“We all know that today’s rate hike will not bring down inflation in the short run – not even on the demand side of the economy, which will react much more to the looming recession than to any ECB action. By the end of 2023, ECB rates will reach 1.75% to 2% in our view," he added. “This decision shows that the hawks must have got cold feet, fearing that the promised higher-than-25bp rate hike in September would be washed away by the looming recession. However, market behaviour is not waiting for an official announcement from central bankers, the strength of expectations is already showing, and we have seen the price of money rise in the market, which has ultimately been reflected in interest rates on banking products," said Hornak told the Slovak News Agency. The rate hike came in response to accelerating inflation. Another factor is higher inflationary pressures stemming from the depreciation of the euro exchange rate.

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'We are not offering forward guidance': ECB ditches policy that ... (Financial Times)

The European Central Bank was unable to react to soaring inflation by raising rates as early as many policymakers wanted because of a commitment to forward ...

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