China

2022 - 4 - 14

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China's trade with Russia up by 12% in March from a year earlier (The Guardian)

Increase outstrips 7.75% growth in China's global trade, suggesting Beijing is maintaining strong links with Moscow. Chinese container ship Res Jian 23.

Germany depends on Russia for 40% of its gas imports. A group of German policy institutes said Germany could be plunged into recession if Europe’s largest economy is forced to block imports of Russian gas. Without a ban on energy imports from Russia, the institutes said growth this year would be 2.7% compared with a previous estimate of 4.8% made last autumn. China’s trade with Russia jumped by more than 12% in March from a year earlier, outpacing the increase in Beijing’s trade with the rest of the world, according to Chinese customs data. The EU last week agreed to ban coal imports from Russia from August. The German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, is under pressure to agree tougher measures, including a ban on gas imports. German GDP would fall by 2.2% next year after a full EU embargo on Russian energy, wiping out more than 400,000 jobs, according to revised estimates of German GDP growth over the next two years.

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Shanghai TV channel postpones Covid spin show after backlash (The Guardian)

Residents express dismay online about tribute to city's handling of outbreak after extended lockdown.

On Wednesday, dozens of producers of key electronic components suspended production at their facilities in Kunshan, which is home to one of the world’s largest electronics manufacturing hubs. Despite the harsh restrictions, the number of Covid-19 infections has continued to rise in the city. Some staff at Dragon TV said the programme’s purpose was to “inject positive energy” into the city’s nearly 26-million residents, who have been in lockdown.

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China's Governance Implosion (Forbes)

China is facing what is arguably the worst crisis in governance since the end of the Cultural Revolution in 1976.

China has managed only one reform-era leadership transition that followed institutionalized rules, from Jiang Zemin to Hu Jintao. Hu was pilloried as weak as Xi ascended, crushed political competitors, and took singular control of the top organs of power. Now the stage is set for a wag-the-dog distraction: a domestic mass movement of some sort, claims of external aggression, anything to give Chinese people the idea that foreigners are against them and they must retreat into isolation. The Party is locked down in its own self-made policy claims and propaganda. Even in the face of international charges that China was irresponsible by not revealing the virus emergence at its early stages, the government continues to hide early mutation data that could help ease the global impact and might even have inadvertently released the virus. The world has been aghast at images being streamed by the connected and sophisticated people of Shanghai: people leaping from high-rises to their deaths in order to escape the lockdown. With the lockdowns, self-obsessed and self-deifying leader-for-life Xi Jinping is clearly reaching for the control over COVID he claimed in 2020.

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China's 'Zero-Covid' Mess Proves Autocracy Hurts Everyone (The New York Times)

The fear in China is that the strict coronavirus policy has become another Mao-style political campaign with devastating effects.

“We believe that it’s just to sacrifice minority interests in favor of the collective.” In the past two years, they followed Beijing’s cue and attacked critics of its pandemic policy. They rallied around Beijing, which increasingly applied the social suppression mechanism in Xinjiang to the rest of the country in the name of pandemic control. The worst nightmare for many Shanghai residents is testing positive and being sent to centralized quarantine facilities. In recent years, he said in an interview, the risk increased after Beijing clamped down on nearly every aspect of civil society. He saw his neighbors, who dashed around in designer suits a month ago, venture into the complex’s lush garden to dig up bamboo shoots for a meal. In the past few days, a hot topic in WeChat groups has been whether sprouted potatoes were safe to eat, a few Shanghai residents told me. “This disease has been politicized,” Zhu Weiping, an official in Shanghai’s disease control apparatus, told a person who complained about the city’s response to the outbreak. After the city locked down its 25 million residents and grounded most delivery services in early April, many people encountered problems sourcing food, regardless of their socioeconomic status. In the spring of 1958, the Chinese government mobilized the entire nation to exterminate sparrows, which Mao declared pests that destroyed crops. Instead, Beijing insists on following the same playbook from 2020 that relies on mass testing, quarantine and lockdowns. All over China, people banged on pots and pans, lit firecrackers and waved flags to prevent the birds from landing so they would fall and die from exhaustion.

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China's trade with Russia slows in March (RTE.ie)

Beijing has hit out against Western sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. Shipments to and from Russia increased 12.76% in March to $11.67 ...

Last year, total trade between China and Russia jumped 35.8% to a record $146.9 billion. In the first quarter, China's trade with Russia jumped 30.45% from a year earlier, within the range of gains seen in previous quarterly increases. China's overall trade with Russia rose over 12% in March from a year earlier, slowing from February but still outpacing the growth in China's total imports and exports.

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Is Shanghai's Covid-19 Disaster China's Future? (The Wall Street Journal)

Time is running out for China to switch to a more sustainable strategy for containing the virus.

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'Always on and watching': A former Xinjiang prisoner describes life ... (TechCrunch)

For 10 months in 2018, Ovalbek Turdakun was a prisoner in one of China's notorious detention camps, where he was tortured, subject to horrific conditions ...

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Janet Yellen Calls on China to Push Russia to End Ukraine War (The New York Times)

The Treasury secretary told the Atlantic Council on Wednesday that the U.S. would press ahead with sanctions.

There is growing pressure to level sanctions on Russia’s energy industry, and some have argued that the United States must consider “secondary sanctions” on countries that do not comply with restrictions that the Biden administration has enacted on transactions. The conflict has already caused dizzying spikes in energy prices and is causing Europe to raise its military spending. Russia’s invasion on Ukraine has had a ripple effect across the globe, adding to the stock market’s woes. “The world’s attitude towards China and its willingness to embrace further economic integration may well be affected by China’s reaction to our call for resolute action on Russia.” “Such motivations are shortsighted.” She spoke amid growing frustration from the United States and its allies that China has refused to condemn Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Instead the two countries have solidified a “special relationship.” The United States has been watching with concern to see if China will help Russia evade sanctions and stabilize its economy.

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New Zealand allows resident to be extradited to China in landmark ... (The Guardian)

Court concludes in case of murder suspect Kyung Yup Kim that government can trust Chinese assurances extradited defendants will not face torture.

In late 2015, the then-minister of justice, Amy Adams, decided Kim should be surrendered to China after she sought diplomatic assurances about his treatment. The original high court ruling outlines the evidence that Chinese authorities say they hold against Kim – claims that Kim contests. Kyung Yup Kim is a Korean-born permanent resident of New Zealand who came to the country in 1989. “The assumption that diplomatic assurances from the PRC can be a sound basis for extradition is deeply concerning,” High said. “The dilemma is very stark for the courts,” he said. They argue assurances provided by China – including that Kim would be tried in Shanghai and that he could be visited by consular staff – are not sufficient or trustworthy.

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Xi Says China Must Persist With Covid Zero Even as Costs Mount (Bloomberg)

Chinese President Xi Jinping says his government will stick to its zero-tolerance approach to Covid even as public anger simmers in Shanghai and economic ...

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Here's How China's Lockdowns Are Rippling Through Economy (Bloomberg)

China's lockdowns to contain the country's worst Covid outbreak since early 2020 have battered the economy, stalling production in major cities like ...

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China's COVID-19 Lockdowns Take Economic Toll (Foreign Policy)

The highlights this week: Ongoing COVID-19 lockdowns are likely to have long-lasting economic effects, Chinese President Xi Jinping mounts a propaganda push ...

Chinese-owned app TikTok has come to play a critical role in the war in Ukraine, both for verification and as a source of potential disinformation. The Chinese gaming industry has been forced to make major political concessions, from acting as an enforcer of anti-gaming laws for children to removing English words and LGBTQ content. The Solomon Islands—the site of brutal World War II battles—switched recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 2019. The trust in the Chinese government generated by controlling the outbreak in Wuhan in 2020 is gone, and people are angry. With economic goals under threat, Beijing is putting socialist goals on the backburner. The second goal has proved problematic, as the prospect of a tighter government grip scares off private entrepreneurs and investors. No one was going to let the news get in the way. China has long sought to expand its presence in the Pacific Ocean, including by using private companies to acquire land for strategic purposes. Global firms are struggling to keep the production lines rolling while smaller businesses, such as publishing, are factoring in product lead times that stretch into several months. But medical and health problems remain acute, and many foreign consulates have ordered nonessential staff to depart the city. Meanwhile, the city’s food situation is still critical, though there are some signs of improvement. A slight dip in new cases didn’t last: Shanghai set a new record of more than 25,000 cases on Tuesday.

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Truckers Caught in Covid Controls Snarl China Supply Chains (Bloomberg)

Drivers stuck in traffic jams, quarantine hamper deliveries · Some drivers locked in cabins as trucks are sealed with tape.

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Russia's Pivot To China - Geopolitics, Trade & Development In The ... (China Briefing)

China's relations with Russia have changed in recent weeks due to the conflict in Ukraine. But much of what has occurred has also been the result of ...

The United States economy isn’t great right now (partially as a result of the sanctions imposed on Russia) with US inflation at 8.5%, the highest since 1981, and the EU rate at 6%, the highest for 40 years. That also means more joint venture partnering – with some Chinese (or China funded) strategic businesses for example in energy, picking up Russia projects abandoned by the likes of Shell, Total and other Western energy firms. In terms of Russia, it remains unclear and in part, unconvincing the impact on the Russian economy the massive amount of sanctions imposed upon the country will have. Assuming this to be correct (and this still may take up much of 2022) there remains no doubt that supply chains to and from China and Europe will have dramatically changed. At the end of 2020, Hong Kong was the third most popular destination in Asia for Russian investment, behind Singapore and Thailand, with a total FDI stock of US$364 million. Russia already sends gas to China via its Power of Siberia pipeline, which began pumping supplies in 2019, and by shipping LNG. It exported 16.5 billion bcm of gas to China in 2021. Gazprom said in a statement it planned to increase gas exports to China to 48 bcm per year, including via a newly agreed pipeline that will deliver 10 bcm annually from Russia’s Far East. Under previous plans, Russia aimed to supply China with 38 bcm by 2025. Gazprom already produces more than 10 million tonnes of LNG / year in Sakhalin. That raises the possibility that should the political situation later change, Russia could once again supply gas to the EU. We suspect demand for cheaper prices in Europe will eventually put this proposal back on the negotiating table despite US attempts to prevent it. The Power of Siberia network is not connected to pipelines that send gas to Europe, which has faced surging gas prices due to tight supplies, one of several points of tension with Moscow. Under plans previously drawn up, Russia aims to supply China with 38 bcm of gas by pipeline by 2025. China’s relations with Russia have changed in recent weeks due to the conflict in Ukraine. But much of what has occurred has also been the result of apparent planning between the two countries. Russia aims to build a second gas pipeline, Power of Siberia 2, with capacity for 50 bcm a year to run via Mongolia to China. Russia was also China’s No. 2 coal supplier in 2021. It should be noted that the two men enjoy close personal relations, as evidenced at meetings and anecdotes the pair shared with the floor at the 2018 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, with tales of Putin serenading Xi Jinping at the piano during private gatherings at Putin’s Dacha in Moscow.

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China escalates zero-Covid propaganda effort as experts warn of ... (Financial Times)

Healthcare official says Beijing's coronavirus prevention policy is 'not viable'

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China's Xi says sticking to tough COVID curbs will bring victory (Reuters)

President Xi Jinping has said that China must stick to its strict "dynamic COVID clearance" policy while the global pandemic remains very serious, ...

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Despite lofty goals, China's leaders sound anxious about economy (Aljazeera.com)

Beijing's draconian 'dynamic zero-COVID' policies and global uncertainties cast doubt on 5.5 percent growth target.

The PRC’s real growth rate in 2022 could be anything, 0 percent or even negative,” Holz said. “We’re also seeing a quickened rollout of the SPBs that typically fund local government infrastructure projects. “Party Secretary Xi Jinping’s likeliest calculation will be that the easiest solution to the conundrum is to blame COVID-19 for not being able to reach the growth target, keep the death rate low with the help of extensive lockdowns, and secure his tenure as party secretary at the 20th party congress. “The government will have to reduce their emphasis on their growth target and be realistic about how the domestic headwinds and a challenging external environment will affect China’s economy through this year.” SPB funds, like RRR cuts, run the risk of ending up in unproductive projects – as happened throughout the 2010s – but that may be a risk central policymakers have to take to juice the economy.” “We need to be highly vigilant for unexpected changes in the international and domestic situations, and downward economic pressure has further mounted,” China’s No 2 official told a symposium in Jiangxi province on Monday, according to a report in South China Morning Post, less than a week after drawing attention to the “complicated and evolving” global situation and COVID-19 outbreaks at home.

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China's Xi says sticking to tough COVID curbs will bring victory (swissinfo.ch)

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - President Xi Jinping has said that China must stick to its strict dynamic COVID clearance policy while the global pandemic remains very ...

A city official said that cases continued to rise despite the lockdown in part because of a backlog of test results and because of ongoing transmission among family members. Raising hopes for a shift in policy, on Wednesday the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) published a guide on home quarantining on its social media. SHANGHAI (Reuters) -China's financial hub Shanghai reported over 27,000 coronavirus cases on Thursday, setting a new record a day after President Xi Jinping said that the country must continue with its strict "dynamic COVID clearance" policy and pandemic control measures.

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China's trade with Russia slows but still beats overall growth (Reuters)

Beijing has refused to call Russia's action an invasion and has repeatedly criticised what it says are illegal Western sanctions to punish Moscow. Several weeks ...

read more Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Last year, total trade between China and Russia jumped 35.8% to a record $146.9 billion. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com read more

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China's Coal Sector Raises Alarm Over Potential for More Outages (Bloomberg)

China's industrial heartlands could be headed for another power crunch as imports dwindle and a resurgent virus clogs up transport of the nation's mainstay ...

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China's Xi says sticking to tough Covid-19 curbs will bring victory (The Irish Times)

Authorities in Shanghai, where millions under lockdown, give no hint of strategy change.

Wuhan’s lockdown in early 2020 heralded a Chinese policy that significantly limited the spread of the virus for most of the next two years. The coronavirus first emerged in the Chinese city of Wuhan in late 2019. Persistence is victory.”

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China's imports unexpectedly fall on Covid curbs (RTE.ie)

China's imports unexpectedly fell in March as Covid-19 curbs across large parts of the country hampered freight arrivals and weakened domestic demand, ...

The country reported a $115.95 billion surplus in January-February. Purchases of copper fell 8.8%, as Covid outbreaks hurt manufacturing activity and industrial demand for some raw materials remained soft. The decline was broad-based. China posted a trade surplus of $47.38 billion in March, more than double the forecast $22.4 billion, thanks to the unexpected decline in imports. This has prompted analysts to expect a worsening in trade in the second quarter. That compared with a 15.5% gain in the first two months of the year and an 8% increase forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll.

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IPhone City Staff in China to Undergo Mandatory Virus Tests (Bloomberg)

Tens of thousands of staff at China's main iPhone manufacturing base will have to go undergo mandatory Covid-testing on Thursday, a potential risk to global ...

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China reporter's notebook: Stuck in time, as covid griefs repeat (The Washington Post)

Traveling back to China under strict covid restrictions as a journalist shows the limitations of a country still holding on to a zero-covid policy, ...

Technically, I was required to register there within a month of entering the country, though this was all but impossible with the quarantines. The rest of the city was locked down, but somehow our little group could leave in a window of bureaucratic limbo between the first and second quarantines. Cabs were not running, so the quarantine hotel arranged a special bus to take us to the train station. This video taken yesterday in Shanghai, China, by the father of a close friend of mine. There’s also the fear of the unknown. Haunting videos circulated online of rows of high-rise buildings full of people screaming from their windows in the dark. Getting back to the office was also going to be expensive and time-consuming. The return of several American journalists, alongside other foreign workers, seemed to signal a small thaw in U.S.-China relations and that the country was finally emerging from the pandemic. In our individual rooms, we checked the plastic stools multiple times a day for meals, made and watched TikTok videos, swapped jokes in a WeChat group. The coronavirus had slipped past the defenses that were meant to keep arrivals like me from bringing it in: the plastic-lined hotel hallways, the daily doses of disinfectant, the twice-daily temperature checks, the army of medical workers in hazmat suits. The city’s 26 million people, more than the population of New York state, were ordered to stay in their homes until everyone had been tested and the outbreak quelled — the standard response from China’s “covid zero” handbook. The return was always going to be bittersweet.

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Elderly Shanghai Man's Pleas for Help Censored in China (Bloomberg)

China has censored an audio clip of an elderly man in Shanghai begging a local official for help seeing a doctor, a sign of the pressure confronting the ...

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Xi Jinping says China must maintain zero tolerance for COVID, even ... (Fortune)

China's tough COVID-zero policy is frustrating residents and risks disrupting the country's economic growth.

On Wednesday, eight major cities, including Shanghai and Guangzhou, were allowed to trial a shorter ten-day quarantine for international arrivals and close contacts of positive cases, as opposed to the 14 days normally required. On Thursday, the city announced that it would ease some social distancing restrictions, including extending dine-in hours and reopening gyms and cinemas. For example, Singapore allowed fully-vaccinated visitors to enter the city without quarantine from April 1. Shanghai reported almost 28,000 cases on Thursday, a record for the city. Yet the more transmissible Omicron variant has led to longer and tougher lockdowns, especially in Shanghai, China's financial center. The Chinese public is losing patience with China's tough approach to COVID-19, which uses lockdowns and mass testing to completely suppress outbreaks.

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Anti-virus shutdowns in China spread as infections rise (ABC News)

Anti-virus controls are shutting down some of China's biggest cities and fueling public irritation as infections rise.

It reopened a week later and business returned to normal. Shanghai leaders were criticized for trying to minimize economic damage by ordering testing but no shutdown once cases were found last month. Grape Chen, a data analyst in Shanghai, said she was panicking about getting medicines for her father, who is recovering from a stroke. “The logistics crunch is worsening,” they said. They come during a sensitive year when President Xi Jinping is expected to try to break with tradition and award himself a third five-year term as leader. But some local leaders are imposing more sweeping controls. Shanghai is easing rules that confined most of its 25 million people to their homes after complaints they had trouble getting food. The government reported 29,411 new cases Thursday, all but 3,020 with no symptoms. That was in contrast to Shenzhen, a tech and finance center of 17.5 million people near Hong Kong that closed the city March 13 after an outbreak and ordered mass testing. All but 2,573 had no symptoms. Beijing has promised to reduce the human and economic cost of its “zero-COVID” strategy, but Xi on Wednesday ruled out joining the United States and other governments that are dropping restrictions and trying to live with the virus. The closures are an embarrassment to the ruling Communist Party and a setback for official efforts to shore up slumping growth in the world’s second-largest economy.

China Will Be Deglobalization's Big Loser | by Minxin Pei - Project ... (Project Syndicate)

Minxin Pei tallies the likely costs of the Ukraine war for Russia's “no limits” strategic partner.

To that end, in 2020 China unveiled its so-called dual-circulation strategy, which aims to foster domestic demand and technological self-sufficiency. CLAREMONT, CALIFORNIA – Russia’s unprovoked war against Ukraine has accelerated the division of the world into two blocs, one comprising the world’s democracies, and the other its autocracies. And although the coming deglobalization process will leave everyone worse off, China stands to lose the most.

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China's Widespread Lockdowns Will Bring an Economic Toll (The New York Times)

The country's zero-tolerance policy for coronavirus cases has analysts downgrading China economic growth forecasts.

The consequence of this competition is that local governments will escalate their own pandemic control policies in order to ensure they don’t risk an outbreak that is difficult to get under control. There are still some 40 million people over the age of 60 who have not had a Covid jab. Officials in dozens of cities have shut down normal daily life across the country in a race to track and trace the virus and stamp out China’s worst outbreak since the start of the pandemic. Some critical components cannot be trucked from ports to factories because of roadblocks and stringent Covid test requirements. “The problem is that when you set this kind of policy target, local governments will compete with each other,” he said. Li Keqiang, the country’s premier, alerted local officials to the growing economic cost of each new coronavirus outbreak on Monday urging authorities to balance pandemic control measures with a need to encourage growth.

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China rejects 'pressure or coercion' over Russia relations (The Seattle Times)

BEIJING (AP) — China on Thursday said it would reject “any pressure or coercion” over its relationship with Russia, in response to a call from U.S. Treasury ...

“Time will tell that China’s claims are on the right side of history.” In a speech Wednesday, Yellen said Beijing “cannot expect the global community to respect its appeals to the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity in the future if it does not respect these principles now.” BEIJING (AP) — China on Thursday said it would reject “any pressure or coercion” over its relationship with Russia, in response to a call from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen for Beijing to use its “special relationship with Russia” to persuade Moscow to end the war in Ukraine.

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China digs in on zero-Covid policy as experts warn of economic ... (The Irish Times)

Beijing's stance contrasts with most of the world, which is learning to live with the virus.

“Only when the pandemic is controlled can we protect people’s lives ... and create favourable conditions for normal production.” – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2022 The official, who did not want to be named, said: “From a medical standpoint, I don’t think the zero-Covid policy is viable any more. Mainland China is the company’s biggest market with 863 stores, but 133 outlets were forced to close in March.

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Xi Moves to Stop Shanghai Covid Rage From Sweeping Across China (Bloomberg)

President Xi Jinping now has a bigger problem than stopping Covid-19 infections: Quelling escalating anger in Shanghai before it spreads across China, ...

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